Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 12 | 7.9 | 13% | 96 | 0.83% |
| 10-19 | 17 | 13.3 | 18.4% | 136 | 1% |
| 20-29 | 24 | 12.3 | 18.1% | 134 | 0.64% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 10.6 | 15.3% | 113 | 0.83% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 8.3 | 11.5% | 85 | 0.81% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 8.4 | 12.3% | 91 | 0.72% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4.1 | 6.5% | 48 | 0.42% |
| 70+ | 9 | 3.0 | 4.9% | 36 | 0.34% |
| All ages | 98 | 67.9 | 100% | 739 | 0.71% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 | 17387 | 63982 | 560 | 144 | 675 |
| Nov 14 | 17448 | 64049 | 561 | 144 | 637 |
| Nov 15 | 17450 | 64083 | 561 | 144 | 569 |
| Nov 16 | 17523 | 64141 | 561 | 144 | 581 |
| Nov 17 | 17612 | 64235 | 563 | 145 | 612 |
| Nov 18 | 17704 | 64314 | 563 | 145 | 704 |
| Nov 19 | 17802 | 64374 | 564 | 145 | 739 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 | 11611 | 37262 | 490 | 123 | 452 |
| Nov 14 | 11635 | 37299 | 493 | 123 | 445 |
| Nov 15 | 11677 | 37323 | 493 | 123 | 436 |
| Nov 16 | 11705 | 37358 | 494 | 125 | 412 |
| Nov 17 | 11753 | 37439 | 498 | 126 | 440 |
| Nov 18 | 11810 | 37467 | 498 | 126 | 467 |
| Nov 19 | 11857 | 37520 | 498 | 126 | 471 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 4.7 | 10.6% | 50 | 0.64% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 9.6 | 20.8% | 98 | 1.17% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 3.3 | 11.7% | 55 | 0.77% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 8.7 | 17.6% | 83 | 0.99% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 5.4 | 12.5% | 59 | 0.76% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.4 | 10.4% | 49 | 0.51% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 4.1 | 9.8% | 46 | 0.55% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.4 | 6.6% | 31 | 0.44% |
| All ages | 47 | 42.7 | 100% | 471 | 0.73% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 | 8997 | 24801 | 409 | 97 | 412 |
| Nov 14 | 9028 | 24845 | 409 | 97 | 395 |
| Nov 15 | 9049 | 24869 | 409 | 97 | 382 |
| Nov 16 | 9089 | 24892 | 410 | 97 | 375 |
| Nov 17 | 9121 | 24944 | 412 | 97 | 384 |
| Nov 18 | 9157 | 24966 | 413 | 97 | 399 |
| Nov 19 | 9222 | 24990 | 416 | 97 | 413 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.4 | 11.6% | 48 | 0.88% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 5.3 | 15% | 62 | 1.14% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 3.6 | 10.4% | 43 | 0.95% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 7.6 | 20.8% | 86 | 1.58% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 6.3 | 14.5% | 60 | 1.21% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 4.1 | 11.1% | 46 | 0.68% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 2.3 | 6.5% | 27 | 0.43% |
| 70+ | 8 | 3.9 | 9.9% | 41 | 0.65% |
| All ages | 65 | 36.4 | 100% | 413 | 0.91% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 | 18432 | 73867 | 695 | 120 | 734 |
| Nov 14 | 18508 | 73944 | 695 | 120 | 753 |
| Nov 15 | 18554 | 74003 | 695 | 120 | 720 |
| Nov 16 | 18624 | 74141 | 699 | 121 | 738 |
| Nov 17 | 18696 | 74389 | 716 | 122 | 787 |
| Nov 18 | 18807 | 74481 | 717 | 123 | 807 |
| Nov 19 | 18877 | 74583 | 719 | 123 | 799 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 14 | 13.0 | 14.3% | 114 | 0.96% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 13.3 | 16.5% | 132 | 0.8% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 11.9 | 14.5% | 116 | 0.55% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 11.7 | 15.3% | 122 | 0.9% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 9.9 | 12.3% | 98 | 0.72% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 9.0 | 12.3% | 98 | 0.69% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 6.4 | 7.4% | 59 | 0.42% |
| 70+ | 5 | 5.0 | 7.5% | 60 | 0.46% |
| All ages | 70 | 80.1 | 100% | 799 | 0.68% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 | 59932 | 432375 | 2002 | 380 | 1494 |
| Nov 14 | 59975 | 432843 | 2002 | 380 | 1384 |
| Nov 15 | 60051 | 433122 | 2002 | 380 | 1289 |
| Nov 16 | 60341 | 433468 | 2008 | 380 | 1412 |
| Nov 17 | 60503 | 434049 | 2006 | 382 | 1517 |
| Nov 18 | 60697 | 434443 | 2007 | 382 | 1640 |
| Nov 19 | 60863 | 434777 | 2015 | 382 | 1604 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 22 | 25.9 | 16.1% | 259 | 0.43% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 19.3 | 11.6% | 186 | 0.26% |
| 20-29 | 42 | 27.1 | 17.9% | 287 | 0.28% |
| 30-39 | 34 | 30.1 | 18.4% | 295 | 0.39% |
| 40-49 | 18 | 22.7 | 14.7% | 235 | 0.36% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 14.4 | 10.3% | 165 | 0.25% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 11.9 | 7.3% | 117 | 0.21% |
| 70+ | 7 | 6.1 | 3.7% | 59 | 0.12% |
| All ages | 166 | 157.7 | 100% | 1604 | 0.29% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 | 925123 | 3609211 | 46806 | 9705 | 32214 |
| Nov 14 | 926903 | 3612990 | 46830 | 9706 | 30634 |
| Nov 15 | 928290 | 3615614 | 46839 | 9706 | 28727 |
| Nov 16 | 932930 | 3619193 | 47047 | 9741 | 30337 |
| Nov 17 | 937142 | 3626225 | 47388 | 9795 | 33272 |
| Nov 18 | 941530 | 3630691 | 47422 | 9800 | 36353 |
| Nov 19 | 945701 | 3636171 | 47604 | 9816 | 36613 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 572 | 469.9 | 13.4% | 4895 | 0.76% |
| 10-19 | 673 | 533.1 | 15.4% | 5636 | 0.74% |
| 20-29 | 526 | 445.6 | 12.9% | 4732 | 0.63% |
| 30-39 | 703 | 590.9 | 16.9% | 6184 | 0.82% |
| 40-49 | 569 | 474.9 | 13.6% | 4962 | 0.71% |
| 50-59 | 486 | 422.3 | 12.1% | 4419 | 0.54% |
| 60-69 | 346 | 307.4 | 8.7% | 3202 | 0.42% |
| 70+ | 292 | 252.1 | 7% | 2556 | 0.4% |
| All ages | 4171 | 3497.4 | 100% | 36613 | 0.63% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-12-10 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 9618"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges